In our last blog post titled “The HOTTEST State for Real Estate”, we identify one state that is red-hot for investing right now.
In this article however, we’ll take a look at the WORST state for building real estate wealth. Its indicators show almost the polar opposite of the hottest state.
To find the weakest states,
There’s one state that’s crushing most of the other states in the country, with 85% of its real estate markets being in the top 7 percentile of ALL US markets, and 100% of its markets remain HOT.
It’s a state you wouldn’t normally think of, but clearly there’s something going on here that you should take a deeper look at.
57 U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-Over-Year
Currently, 57 markets (14% of ALL U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values over the last year.
In the previous quarter, 58 markets had annual home price declines
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
In addition to the list of declining cities below,
47% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Currently, 189 markets (47% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 187 markets (46%) saw Q-O-Q declines. While the ‘total’ number of declining markets are roughly the same,
We took the data, plugged it into a new tool we created called the house value finder, and compared it to our hot market score.
What exactly is a Wealth Phase?
Simply put, Real Estate “Wealth Phases” are when you can make the most money with the least amount of effort, capital and risk.
Real Estate is Cyclical. All real estate prices rise and fall over time. These cycles occur at the LOCAL (city) level. EVERY local market is different.
26% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Currently, 104 markets (26% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines compared to the prior Quarter.
In the previous quarter, 73 markets (18%) declined.
148 markets (37%) saw Q-O-Q declines in the year ago period. (Because of possible seasonal variations,
58 U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-Over-Year
Currently, 58 markets (14% of ALL U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines over the last year.
In the previous quarter, 72 markets had annual home price declines.
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
In addition to the list of declining cities below,
Every quarter we scan our Hot Market Finder and State Radar tools to see which markets are rising or falling the most.
This ‘Big Mover’ list often foretells major market changes.
Here’s what it looked like for the STATE level:
We compare the current Master Score “percentile”
73 Markets Lost Value Quarter-Over-Quarter
Currently, 73 markets (18% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines over the last three months.
In the previous quarter, 146 markets (36%) had Quarter-Over-Quarter declines
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
In addition to the list of declining cities below,
72 U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-Over-Year
Currently, 72 markets (18% of ALL U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines over the last year.
In the previous quarter, 61 markets had annual home price declines (they didn’t even keep up with inflation).
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
In addition to the list of declining cities below,
Check out this new county-level real estate map for the entire U.S.
We’re now able to score micro markets (Counties, Zip Codes and Neighborhoods) and RANK them against all the other counties, zip codes and neighborhoods nationwide.
RED = the top 10% of all counties nationwide.
ORANGE = the 80 –
STAR Indicators
The STAR momentum indicators show the 'energy' behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six 'triggers' represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) 'event.'
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) 'growing' from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
STAR Momentum Indicators
Market Momentum (STAR) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
The STAR momentum indicators show the ‘energy’ behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six ‘triggers’ represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) ‘event.’
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) ‘growing’ from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
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TAPS Indicators
The TAPS (Technical Analysis Point Score) indicator is an easy to understand, graphical way to show the results of complex Technical Analysis (TA) 'Studies.'
The simple 'slider ball' can move a total of five notches starting from far left (Weak) to far right (Strong).
If the ball position has moved since the prior period, it will have a series of arrows behind it. If the arrows are on the left, that signifies a move from the left, from a weaker to a stronger position, and vice-versa.
Each detailed TA Study has its own slider ball indicator and consists of dozens to hundreds of individual calculations (collectively referred to as 'algorithms').
These detailed algorithms are aggregated and weighted to produce higher level Summary slider indicators until the top-level, overall score is attained.
(TAPS) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
This is the Technical Analysis Point Score ranking for ONLY that particular city. It ignores any impact State, Regional or National market TAPS scores may have on that local market.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Real Estate Cycle Charts
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called "Studies" – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
Because real estate is so cyclical (compared to the Stock Market, for example), relatively simple Studies can be used to accurately track local markets.
Long Term Real Estate Cycles
Your State: Alabama
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called “Studies” – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Percentile Ranking Gauges
These gauges show the exact percentile (rank) of this market relative to all markets. A score of “95%” means that, for this indicator, 95% of ALL markets scored lower. 99% (Green) is the best, 0% (Red) is the worst. Typically, a Master Score in the Green area indicates a hot market.
Exit a market based on declining Master, TAPS and STAR scores, especially when new, emerging markets show much stronger relative strength. Follow the "Wealth Phase" chart (when it is no longer green) for the 'last' indicator on when to EXIT a market.
Before initiating a NEW investment or entering a NEW market, look for a high (green) Master, TAPS and STAR (momentum) scores combined with a 'green' Wealth Phase chart.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. For assistance, please use the live chat in bottom right or email support@housingalerts.com
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Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. Learn more...
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