If you were surprised to learn that the two U.S. metro markets with the highest population growth for 2022, 2023 and 2024 were also some of the WORST markets for Home Price Appreciation, then this might blow your mind…
Population Growth is NOT a Reliable
Predictor of Home Price Appreciation
Here are the eight fastest-growing U.S. metro markets by population…
You’d assume these fastest population growth markets would be booming with home price growth, right?
Wrong.
Half of them actually saw home prices FALL year-over-year.
The other half saw such minimal appreciation that—on a real (inflation adjusted) basis…
ALL OF THESE HIGHEST POPULATION GROWTH
MARKETS HAVE FALLING HOME PRICES.
ALL OF THESE HIGHEST POPULATION GROWTH
MARKETS HAVE FALLING HOME PRICES.
This isn’t an outlier.
It’s a pattern I’ve seen play out again and again for over FOUR decades of tracking home prices and population shifts at the state, county, and city level.
Sometimes they might line up like you’d think they should, other times the complete opposite occurs.
Population Growth Does NOT
Predict Future Home Values.
Population Growth Does NOT
Predict Future Home Values.
It never has.
Yet it’s still the #1 most misused and overhyped data point in real estate investing.
You hear it from influencers, podcasters, and “experts” all over social media…
…talking endlessly about “net migration,” “in-migration trends,” and other distractions.
Why? Because it sounds smart.
It’s easy to package.
And it sells.
But here’s the truth:
None of it tells you where home prices are headed.
Population growth doesn’t drive home price appreciation.
Market Psychology does.
And the only method that accurately tracks and responds to changes in Market Psychology is Technical Analysis (TA) – not outdated Fundamental Analysis (FA) that leads investors in the wrong direction.
FA is a dead-end that will never give you accurate, ACTIONABLE real time DECISION TRIGGERS.
If you want to:
- Predict home price cycles before they happen…
- Know which local micro markets to target for your strategy…
- And make data-backed, risk-adjusted investment decisions…
Then you need real-time market signals that come only from Technical Analysis
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