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14% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Currently, 58 markets (14% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 69 markets (17%) saw Q-O-Q declines.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters, it’s best to compare Q-O-Q changes to the ‘year ago’ period rather than the immediately preceding quarter.
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
In addition to the list of declining cities below, we also use our Advance-Decline (A-D) Indicator that aggregates and tracks Market Breadth.
Market breadth is a study used in Technical Analysis that attempts to gauge the direction of the overall market by analyzing the number of markets advancing relative to the number declining.
Changes in Market Breadth can act as early indicators for changes in the market cycle.
chart looks like for ALL U.S. Real Estate Markets...
The BLUE line is the inflation adjusted overall appreciation rate for the average of all U.S. real estate markets (as read from the right axis).
The RED line is the percentage of all U.S. real estate markets that have increased in value on a quarter-over-quarter basis, averaged over the last 4 quarters (as read from the left axis).
As with all Quarterly vs. Annual comparisons, you’ll see more variance with shorter time frames. It’s common for this red line to fluctuate up and down.
This A-D Indicator can also be used on State and Regional levels for more granular insights. PRO level members can customize this indicator by logging in and visiting the ‘Advance-Decline’ tool.
Below is the list of cities with
declining Quarter-Over-Quarter home prices…
Note: These are 3-month percentage decline rates.
Multiply by 4 to get approximate annual equivalent (at current run rate).
These are not normal times.
It could go either way in the coming months and quarters, it just depends on the individual local market.
Investors need to pay close attention.
The only accurate way to analyze and anticipate local real estate market moves, especially in times like this, is with Technical Analysis (TA) and HousingAlerts.
‘Market Psychology’ will decide which markets are winners or losers, and only TA can track that driving force.
If your markets are on this list, DON’T panic!
ONE data point, whether it’s for a Quarter or a Year, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to buy, sell or hold… or do ANYTHING different, other than pay closer attention. That’s where Technical Analysis (TA) comes in.
TA is a 500 year old science to help predict future market swings. TA is used by every Wall Street investment bank and every global stock, bond, currency and commodities trading firm on the planet for TRILLIONS of dollars in DAILY trades.
We invented TA for local real estate
markets and have the most accurate local
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