If you were surprised to learn that the two U.S. metro markets with the highest population growth for 2022, 2023 and 2024 were also some of the WORST markets for Home Price Appreciation, then this might blow your mind…
Population Growth is NOT a Reliable
Predictor of Home Price Appreciation
Here are the eight fastest-growing U.S.
I know it may sound counter to everything you’ve been taught, but just because a market has a lot of population growth DOES NOT mean it’s good for home price appreciation.
In fact, the opposite is often true.
The U.S. population grows at less than 1% per year (usually around 7/10th of 1 %).
39.8% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Last quarter, 161 markets (39.8% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 148 markets (37%) saw Q-O-Q declines.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters,
78 U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-Over-Year
Last quarter, home prices declined Year-over-Year (YoY) on a ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) basis in 78 (19.3%) of the 405 largest metropolitan real estate markets nationwide.
In the previous quarter, 88 markets had annual home price declines.
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)Last quarter,
15.8% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Last quarter, 64 markets (15.8% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 215 markets (53%) saw Q-O-Q declines.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters,
53% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Last quarter, 215 markets (53% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 251 markets (62%) saw Q-O-Q declines.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters,
88 U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-Over-Year
Last quarter, home prices declined Year-over-Year (YoY) on a ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) basis in 88 (21.7%) of the 405 largest metropolitan real estate markets nationwide.
In the previous quarter, 103 markets had annual home price declines.
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
Sixteen markets saw double-digit appreciation;
If you’ve done much marketing for real estate ‘Motivated Seller’ leads you’re probably familiar with “List Stacking.”
I did my first List Stacking over 30 years ago by combining delinquent property tax lists with out of state and vacant landowners of 50 acres or more. I used the same stacking strategy going from county to county and state to state.
As part of our multi-year development project creating FIVE (5) new local market prediction algorithms, we also created the PRECISION MARKET TOOLS (“PMT”) as a streamlined way to access these new predictors and over 100 other indicators we’ve developed over the years.
The HousingAlerts PRO dashboard has grown to include over 30 different tools,
59.5% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Last quarter, 241 markets (59.5% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 289 markets (71.3%) saw Q-O-Q declines.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters,
The most accurate local real estate market prediction system on planet Earth just got 10x better (Proof Below).
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No matter what the world threw at it,
103 U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-Over-Year
Last quarter, home prices declined Year-over-Year (YoY) on a ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) basis in 103 (25.4%) of the 405 largest metropolitan real estate markets nationwide.
In the previous quarter, 129 markets had annual home price declines.
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
A handful of markets are seeing double-digit appreciation;
STAR Indicators
The STAR momentum indicators show the 'energy' behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six 'triggers' represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) 'event.'
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) 'growing' from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
STAR Momentum Indicators
Market Momentum (STAR) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
The STAR momentum indicators show the ‘energy’ behind any market. For a sustained up-cycle, it MUST be supported by momentum. Market Psychology influences momentum but is not the only driver.
The first step in locating investment candidates is evaluating the STAR indicators. Each of the six ‘triggers’ represent a distinct Technical Analysis (TA) ‘event.’
The left-most columns are Short-Term triggers and carry far less significance than the Long-Term indicators on the right.
However, all Trend Reversals (up or down) BEGIN with the short term triggers. They provide early-warning signals, especially when they develop a consistent pattern of changing colors (from green to red, or red to green) ‘growing’ from left to right.
Green means positive, upward sloping momentum. Red means the opposite. Yellow occurs when, in the current period, the slope/direction changed for that trigger.
Markets that do not display a consistent color pattern; with seemingly random horizontal color changes from one period to the next, especially in the long-term triggers, are generally lacking ANY momentum, and are poor investment markets for Leveraged Appreciation.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
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TAPS Indicators
The TAPS (Technical Analysis Point Score) indicator is an easy to understand, graphical way to show the results of complex Technical Analysis (TA) 'Studies.'
The simple 'slider ball' can move a total of five notches starting from far left (Weak) to far right (Strong).
If the ball position has moved since the prior period, it will have a series of arrows behind it. If the arrows are on the left, that signifies a move from the left, from a weaker to a stronger position, and vice-versa.
Each detailed TA Study has its own slider ball indicator and consists of dozens to hundreds of individual calculations (collectively referred to as 'algorithms').
These detailed algorithms are aggregated and weighted to produce higher level Summary slider indicators until the top-level, overall score is attained.
(TAPS) Indicators
Your State: Alabama
This is the Technical Analysis Point Score ranking for ONLY that particular city. It ignores any impact State, Regional or National market TAPS scores may have on that local market.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Real Estate Cycle Charts
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called "Studies" – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
Because real estate is so cyclical (compared to the Stock Market, for example), relatively simple Studies can be used to accurately track local markets.
Long Term Real Estate Cycles
Your State: Alabama
Charts showing the annual appreciation or decline in real estate values over time are visual snapshots of Supply and Demand forces in action. Technical Analysis (TA) relies on these charts because they accurately reflect what ACTUALLY happened.
The practice of TA consists of what are called “Studies” – different sets of calculations and algorithms proven over time. These Studies include Market Psychology, the most powerful driver of all.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Percentile Ranking Gauges
These gauges show the exact percentile (rank) of this market relative to all markets. A score of “95%” means that, for this indicator, 95% of ALL markets scored lower. 99% (Green) is the best, 0% (Red) is the worst. Typically, a Master Score in the Green area indicates a hot market.
Exit a market based on declining Master, TAPS and STAR scores, especially when new, emerging markets show much stronger relative strength. Follow the "Wealth Phase" chart (when it is no longer green) for the 'last' indicator on when to EXIT a market.
Before initiating a NEW investment or entering a NEW market, look for a high (green) Master, TAPS and STAR (momentum) scores combined with a 'green' Wealth Phase chart.
If you want to know more about HosuingAlerts just click here to learn more.
Close Tab Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. For assistance, please use the live chat in bottom right or email support@housingalerts.com
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Close Tab Matching your investing tactics and strategies to your local real estate market trends produces more deals with less risk, effort, and capital. Your micro market intelligence finds and targets those needle-in-a-haystack opportunities and dramatically increases your ROI while slashing your upfront acquisition and marketing costs. Learn more...
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