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34 U.S. Markets Lost Value Year-Over-Year
In the fourth quarter of 2022, home prices declined Year-over-Year (YoY) on a ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) basis in 34 of the 405 largest real estate markets nationwide.
In the previous quarter, 10 markets had annual home price declines.
Home prices in most markets continued to appreciate on a year-over-year basis, but at a declining rate.
HOWEVER…
We expect to see most markets “go negative” on an inflation adjusted, YoY basis and continue showing YoY declines for much of 2023.
A few of the high-flying markets that had crazy-high 2-year nominal appreciation of 50%, 60% even 70% during the pandemic have already turned negative compared to year-ago prices. Given the historic high levels of home price appreciation these markets realized, some pullback was expected.
None of this constitutes a housing market crash.
It’s reasonable to expect a market that appreciated 60% in just two years would ‘correct’ a bit, especially given the doubling of mortgage rates and the Fed’s aggressive Quantitative Tightening (‘QT’) program.
Contrary to all the dire warnings media pundits have been belching for the past several YEARS that the “mother of all real estate crashes” was imminent, we actually experienced the OPPOSITE; the biggest and broadest two-year real estate home price appreciation period ever.
Unfortunately, if you’ve fallen prey to their fear mongering clickbait tactics, then you likely missed out on the single biggest real estate wealth creation ‘mini-cycle’ in American history.
Major Risks Remain.
Numerous Geo-political and economic uncertainties exist, any one of which could be the catalyst for a significant, extended real estate market crash.
Either way, it’s time to pay very serious attention to what’s going on inside your local market(s).
A big shift in Market Psychology could easily take markets down, and that’s a reasonable possibility given the extreme macro-economic and Geo-political risks.
It won’t take much to light that fuse.
You’ve got to track what’s ACTUALLY HAPPENING in your local market.
Don’t rely on a bunch of theoretical, outdated or just plain incorrect ‘Fundamental Analysis’ proven to have little or no correlation to predicting your next LOCAL market cycle.
Only Technical Analysis (‘TA’) can give you precise decision triggers and only HousingAlerts can provide them.
This is the most volatile (and exciting) time for real estate markets I’ve ever seen.
Fortunes will be made or lost in the coming quarters; some markets will do amazingly well; others will crash and burn.
In addition to the list of declining cities below, we also use our Advance-Decline (A-D) Indicator that aggregates and tracks Market Breadth.
‘Market Breadth’ is a technique used in Technical Analysis (TA) that attempts to gauge the direction of the overall market by analyzing the number of markets advancing relative to the number declining.
Changes in Market Breadth can act as early indicators for changes in the market cycle.
data looks like for the overall National market.
#1 – When the red chart line is inside the green zone it’s a bullish – or positive – outlook on the overall market.
#2 – When the red line is in the middle zone it’s telling us there is no strong bullish or bearish direction; you must rely more heavily on market-by-market selections.
#3 – When the red line is in the bottom (red) zone, it indicates substantial weakness in the overall market.
PRO level members can customize this Advance-Decline indicator for more granular insights.
Below is the list of cities with
declining Year-Over-Year home prices…
Most of the so-called experts are still calling for a huge market crash, as they’ve been doing for YEARS now.
Eventually they’ll be right, just like a broken clock is right twice a day!
If and when any particular local real estate market starts to roll over and crash, you can see it from a mile away inside HousingAlerts.
HousingAlerts has been providing the most actionable, market-by-market decision triggers for every U.S. real estate market for 17 years running.
If your markets are on this list, DON’T panic!
ONE data point, whether it’s for a Quarter or a Year, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to buy, sell or hold… or do ANYTHING different, other than pay closer attention. That’s where Technical Analysis (TA) comes in.
TA is a 500 year old science to help predict future market swings. TA is used by every Wall Street investment bank and every global stock, bond, currency and commodities trading firm on the planet for TRILLIONS of dollars in DAILY trades.
We invented TA for local real estate
markets and have the most accurate local
market cycle predictions on Planet Earth
If you want to maximize your Investing, Wholesaling and Flipping profits while minimizing risk, capital and effort in ANY U.S. real estate market, you need to invest WITH the market. Come join us and enter the world of Intelligent Investing.
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