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47% Of US Housing Markets
Declined Qtr-Over-Qtr
Currently, 189 markets (47% of all U.S. real estate) experienced ‘real’ (inflation adjusted) declines in property values compared to the prior Quarter.
For the same period last year 187 markets (46%) saw Q-O-Q declines. While the ‘total’ number of declining markets are roughly the same, the composition has changed; the new list includes some previously hot markets.
Note: Because of seasonal variations between quarters, it’s best to compare Q-O-Q changes to the ‘year ago’ period rather than the immediately preceding quarter.
(See the entire list of declining markets below.)
In addition to the list of declining cities below, we also use our Advance-Decline (A-D) Indicator that aggregates and tracks Market Breadth.
Market breadth is a study used in Technical Analysis that attempts to gauge the direction of the overall market by analyzing the number of markets advancing relative to the number declining.
Changes in Market Breadth can act as early indicators for changes in the market cycle.
chart looks like for ALL U.S. Real Estate Markets.
The BLUE line is the inflation adjusted overall appreciation rate for the average of all U.S. real estate markets (as read from the right axis).
The RED line is the percentage of all U.S. real estate markets that have increased in value on a quarter-over-quarter basis, averaged over the last 4 quarters (as read from the left axis).
Note how the red A-D line almost perfectly mirrors the movements of the blue APPRECIATION line, especially over the last 14 years.
As with all Quarterly vs. Annual comparisons, you’ll see more variance with shorter time frames. It’s common for this red line to fluctuate up and down.
This A-D Indicator can also be used on State and Regional levels for more granular insights. PRO level members can customize this Advance-Decline tool by logging in and visiting: Real Estate Market Breadth Analyzer.
Below is the list of cities with
declining Quarter-Over-Quarter home prices…
Note: These are 3-month percentage decline rates.
Multiply by 4 to get approximate annual equivalent (at current run rate).
If your markets are on this list, DON’T panic!
ONE data point, whether it’s for a Quarter or a Year, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to buy, sell or hold… or do ANYTHING different, other than pay closer attention. That’s where Technical Analysis (TA) comes in.
TA is a 500 year old science to help predict future market swings. TA is used by every Wall Street investment bank and every global stock, bond, currency and commodities trading firm on the planet for TRILLIONS of dollars in DAILY trades.
We invented TA for local real estate
markets and have the most accurate local
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